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A Failure to Communicate: The PNP’s Tale of Woe

Neleen S. Leslie, Ph.D.

The Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) has been declared the winner of Jamaica’s 2016 General Elections, and for some, it has come as a shock.

The JLP captured thirty-three (33) parliamentary seats, to the People’s National Party’s (PNP’s) thirty (30).  Attention has now turned to how the PNP could have lost an election that, based on major polls, it was slated to win.

Don Anderson, Jamaica’s foremost political pollster, predicted, just days before the election, that the People’s National Party (PNP) would emerge the winners in what was predicted to be a tight race. This was based on his final poll, conducted Feb 13-16 among 1,093 voters (Jamaica Gleaner: February 23, 2016). 

There were a number of issues with the PNP’s strategy that may have proved to be much bigger factors than the party anticipated. All of which, I fear point to a simple failure to communicate. 

  

“…You will be appropriately informed when my master touches me and say ‘my daughter go now'” 

Elections were constitutionally due between December 29, 2016 and April 16, 2017, and the Prime Minister has the right/responsibility to name an election date.

via jamaicaobserver.com

By activating the political machinery of her organization  in early fall 0f 2015, the Prime Minister, Hon. Portia Simpson-Miller threw the entire country into a tizzy with the expectation of elections before the end of 2015. Counter to predictions however, Mrs. Simpson-Miller kept the Jamaican people in the dark for months, on when the actual elections would be. Mrs. Simpson-Miller announced, at a political event on November 15, 2015 that she was waiting on a message from God.  This prompted a range of reactions from the Jamaican people, humor at best, disgust at worst.

via Twimg
via Twimg


It also prompted calls from some quarters for fixed election dates.

From an administrative and financial perspective, the move was a major nightmare. The Election of Jamaica Commissioner, Tom Tavares Finson reported that close to J$250 million was spent preparing for an election that never materialized (Jamaica Gleaner: January 22, 2016). 

Public sentiments aside, this was a major faux pas and not the best start to a political campaign for the leadership of a country, even if you’re the incumbent. The “waiting for divine intervention” position could be interpreted as a misuse of power on the part of the Prime Minister, who was accused by some members of the public of “playing games” with election dates. In a political environment where public trust is low, this move was a wrong footed first step.

The election date was finally announced on January 31, 2016…for February 25th. This gave stakeholders only twenty-four days to prepare. The cost of this hastily executed parliamentary election will be released in the coming weeks, i’m sure. It also limited both parties’ abilities to campaign, but the PNP had a definite advantage in this instance, since they had the luxury of deciding the date.

  


Campaign Manifesto Fiasco

Despite taking “first mover advantage” by announcing the election date, the PNP soon ceased to be the center of conversation when Andrew Holness, leader of the JLP presented a ten-point plan for transforming Jamaica in a national broadcast on February 4th, 2016. The most controversial proposal forwarded in that plan was the elimination of income tax for Jamaicans who earn up to J$1.5 million per year. Significant airtime and print real estate was spent dissecting this proposal and the JLP took advantage of the opportunity to make their rounds at media houses, explaining how they planned to implement their ten-point plan, and discussing the feasibility of their tax proposal.

Although the PNP made every effort to rebut the opposition’s proposal and write off the tax plan as infeasible, they failed to respond with a plan of their own. Their seventy-two (72 ) page manifesto was not released until February 16th, nine (9) days before the general elections and twelve (12) days after Holness’ ten-point plan. This allowed the JLP to dominate conversation, almost exclusively for twelve of the twenty-four days leading up to the election. Regardless of the merits of the JLP’s plan, the Jamaican electorate had an opportunity to discuss and hear expert analyses of this plan, and to fall in or out of love with it as they saw fit. The PNP’s stance and messaging during that entire period was simply “it will never work”. What was needed at that time was a solid rebuttal, in the form of their own plan to be discussed alongside the JLP’s proposal. This came a little bit too late. Although the JLP’s full, fifty-six (56) page manifesto was not released until February 18th, they did not face similar criticisms. They had, after all, provided a more “customer oriented” version of their plan way in advance…to the PNP’s detriment. 

The Big House Saga

The leader of the opposition’s house also became a major topic of conversation in the weeks leading up to the election. The development first came in 2014 and gained traction in mid 2015 when it was revealed that JLP donors were concerned about the J$250 million (Jamaica Observer estimate) home that Andrew Holness and his wife were in the process of constructing in an affluent neighborhood in Jamaica. What first started as an internal issue for the JLP was then dragged back into prominence by the People’s National Party on the campaign trail. Minister of Finance, Dr. Peter Phillips spearheaded calls for details of the Holnesses’ financial affairs and the financing of their home from as early as mid-November 2015. 

For the second consecutive week, Andrew Holness' house came in for special mention at a People's National Party (PNP) meeting. As he did in Portmore, St Catherine, two Sundays ago, Dr Peter Phillips turned up in Black River, St via Jamaica Gleaner - Instagram
For the second consecutive week, Andrew Holness’ house came in for special mention at a People’s National Party (PNP) meeting. As he did in Portmore, St Catherine, two Sundays ago, Dr Peter Phillips turned up in Black River, St via Jamaica Gleaner – Instagram

This matter was a major topic of conversation, right up to election day. The PNP went as far as to make the release of the details of Holness’ financing of his home a condition for their participation in the national debates that were organized by the Jamaica Debates Commission (RJR News: February 16, 2015).

Holness provided the details demanded by Dr. Phillips on February 16, 2015, but this still did not deter Dr. Phillips from demanding yet more answers and details. The JLP was however able to turn the tide of public perception by appearing to be forthright and transparent while raising questions about the intent of Dr. Phillips and the PNP to release similar details prior to elections. Holness also capitalized on residual hostilities that many Jamaicans still harbored after the collapse of the Jamaican financial sector in the mid 1990s. In Holness’ response to Phillips’ questions, he posed several questions of his own about FINSAC, which was established in 1997 to restructure Jamaica’s floundering financial system and resulted in several Jamaicans losing their homes and businesses.  Holness also questioned whether member of the PNP personally benefitted from those losses by acquiring properties taken over by FINSAC. This shifted suspicion and attention from the JLP to the PNP, placing them in a defensive position and reopening old wounds for members of the electorate.

As the PNP’s demands for more information continued, the public began to lose interest in Holness’ home, and they eventually grew weary of the topic. Weariness gave way to exasperation as Phillips and the PNP continued to make additional demands of Holness. Public sentiment began to shift and members of the public started to accuse the PNP of making Holness’ house a major campaign issue, in the absence of a credible counter to Holness’ ten-point plan. 

observe

Again,the PNP’s strategy of targeting Holness’ finances backfired, and kept Holness and the JLP at the center of pre-election conversation and attention all the way up to election day. While I would not agree that “all publicity is good publicity”, the JLP certainly benefitted from the controversy, and Holness was given the opportunity to play the martyr, further endearing him to his party’s supporters, and “humanizing” him in the eyes of the general public. 

  

To Debate or Not Debate?

Arguably the most damning error on the part of the PNP was the refusal of Mrs. Simpson-Miller to participate in the national debates (see above). The Simpson-Miller camp advised the Jamaica Debates Commission that they would not participate in the national debates unless certain demands were met:

  1. An apology to Mrs. Simpson-Miller from the leader of the opposition for statements made against her.
  2. Public apologies for other statements made by Holness and other members of the JLP on the campaign trail
  3. A town hall format for the debates, similar to the democratic presidential debates. 
  4. Answers to questions posed by Dr.Phillips about Holness’ home (see above). 

 The Debates Commission nixed the request for the change in format due to time constraints. The debates were scheduled for February 16th, 18th and 20th. The proposed format was consistent with the 2011 national debates, where journalists posed questions to candidates. The JLP had already indicated their willingness to debate on the proposed dates

While Holness refused to apologize for statements he and other members of his party made about Mrs. Simpson-Miller and her administration, he provided the answers to the questions related to his home posed by Dr. Phillips and even poked fun at the PNP on Twitter for refusing to debate. 

In the eyes of the Jamaican people however, the PNP’s refusal to debate was considered an act of disrespect and was indicative of the PNP’s complacence. Many posited that there had been name calling on both sides of the political fence, and such utterances we par for the course; both parties were guilty of same.  Some also thought the refusal to debate was an effort to protect Mrs. Simpson-Miller who has struggled in previous debates. 

Portia-coward

Arguments also surfaced that by refusing to debate, the PNP had revealed its strategy of relying on the tribal nature of Jamaican politics where the majority of votes were based on family tradition and strong party loyalties, rather than the issues. Others went as far as to assert that the  debates were unimportant as they only appealed to the “articulate minority“ (so named by the PNP’s Robert Pickgersgill), comprising primarily social media users who were highly critical of government as a whole, but more often than not, did not vote (Jamaica Observer: February 25, 2016). These individuals are generally more educated than the general population and and are part of the less than nine percent (9% ) of Jamaicans with tertiary level education (STATIN, 2013). 

The PNP’s refusal to debate might just have been their undoing, as millennials, who represent the majority of the “articulate minority,” vowed to participate in the electoral process, many, for the first time, to show their disapproval of the PNP’s unwillingness to engage the Jamaican electorate at the intellectual level. The twitter hashtag #articulateminority eventually circulated, and was used on February 25th by people who identified with this group to show their “inked fingers.”

In an election characterized by low voter turnout (less than 50% based on media reports), this, quite possibly made the difference in a number of “yellow” or marginal constituencies.

Some Final Thoughts

The result of the 2016 General Elections in Jamaica will no doubt, continue to be discussed for weeks to come. While I am no political communications expert, there were a few major takeaways that I think are worth highlighting.

  

Jamaican politics is evolving: Gone are the days when mass rallies, community meetings and flooding the airwaves with catchy political jingles will win an election. The Jamaican electorate is slowly beginning to require more: more information, more detailed communication and more clearly articulated plans. While Jamaica’s culture of partisan politics endures, this is also slowly changing. As the nation’s youth becomes a larger part of the voter base, partisanship will continue to give way to a more performance-based model. Multi-term governments may also be a thing of the past. There is decidedly less patience for errors or tolerance for broken election promises. Political parties now face greater pressure to  “walk the talk”, if they expect to stay in power.

Communication strategists sorely needed: It is evident that there is an increasing need for integrated communications campaigns by Jamaica’s political parties. Political communications in Jamaica is clearly evolving beyond the traditional, old school tactics that were used by political parties in the past. Clear communications objectives, target segment(s) identification, positioning strategy and implementation plans are needed before elections are even called. Doing things “as we go”, or on the fly, will leave you looking ill-prepared for an event for which you had at least four years to plan. 

Listen to the people: Regardless of your strategy, you have to be responsive to the needs of your audience. Focus on the issues that are important to them, rather than scoring political points, or making the other guy look bad. It takes very little for public sentiment to change and move in a direction that does not favor your party. This is very likely if your campaign is focusing on issues the public has moved past, or doesn’t care about.

Engage the articulate minority: The articulate minority, may not be the minority for much longer. They will continue to represent a larger portion of the voter base with every election, so their communication requirements should be given due attention. It is also worth noting that there may be greater solidarity among members of this group, in terms of how they vote. It is very likely that the majority of the members of this group who show up to the polls, will vote for the same political party.

Issues/Plans trump all: In 2011, the JLP ran a campaign that spent a significant amount of their time focusing on the perceived inadequacies of Mrs. Simpson-Miller, they lost. The PNP, in 2016 ran a campaign that focused too much on Andrew Holness’ 10-point plan and home, they lost. Political parties would be better served focusing their energies on communicating their qualifications, accomplishments and plans rather than engaging in attacks on their opponents.

 Sources:

STATIN (2013), Labour Market Transition of Young Men and Women in Jamaica: 2013 Summary Report. Retrieved from: STATIN

Author’s note: All newspaper articles referenced in this publication are also hyperlinked to the original source in text.

By Neleen S. Leslie, Ph.D.

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